Could Biden do what Blair did 20 years ago and pre-announce his retirement?
A potential compromise solution for the Democrats
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With some Democrats wanting Biden to step aside to allow someone else to become the nominee and others wanting him to stay and fight November’s election, could a compromise solution be some version of what happened in the UK 20 years ago? Blair had come to power in 1997 and then won a second term in 2001, but then,
in 2004, while under fire over Iraq and facing questions about his health after suffering heart problems, Mr Blair became the first serving prime minister to pre-announce his retirement. He said he intended to fight the next (2005) General Election, serve a full third term in office but then stand down rather than fight a fourth election
Back then in the UK, as now in the US, there was a likely successor waiting. His name was Gordon Brown. He wasn’t the vice president because we don’t have presidents in the UK (though some felt Blair acted like one) and he wasn’t even Deputy Prime Minister, but he was the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Second Lord of the Treasury. He’d been in that position since Labour came to power in 1997.
Though Blair didn’t say that when he stepped down Brown would take his place, most people assumed that’s what would happen. When people voted Labour in 2005, they would have known that at some point Brown would likely become prime minister.
If Biden were to do something similar he would make clear that at some point between January 2025 and January 2029, Kamala Harris would become president. Perhaps to most voters it’s already clear that should Biden win in November he’s highly unlikely to serve out his term and that therefore Harris would take over. And those Democrats who argue that Biden is the nominee and should remain the nominee often answer the complaint that Biden surely won’t be fit to serve a full term by pointing out that there’s a qualified and capable vice president ready to take over. It just feels somewhat deceptive.
Would it harm Biden to state openly that he won’t serve a full term? It might. It would lead to speculation as to when he would hand over to Harris and could open the Democrats to attacks that they’re trying to install unpopular Kamala on the coat-tails of friendly old Joe. Why not just make Kamala the nominee?
But it could come across as being refreshingly honest. It could allay some of the concerns people have about Biden. It could be used as a way of reintroducing Kamala Harris to the public.
Could they campaign as if it was a double-headed ticket, with them both effectively the nominee? In the UK we’ve had parties with two leaders – actually I can only think of the Greens, unless you count the Liberal SDP Alliance of the 1980s. It probably wouldn’t work, would it? But it might still be worth a try, given where we are. If Biden remains the nominee, there needs to be some recognition that Harris is very likely going to become president so she would need to have a far more prominent role than is usually given to vice presidential nominees. That already appears to be happening.
I still think the Democrats’ best chance of keeping the White House is for Biden to step aside and for them to choose a different nominee. I’d like to see a contested convention, with Kamala Harris part of that contest, but the longer Biden clings on the less likely that becomes.